How many times have we been here before? The market is about to crash! Get out now! Even Howard Marks is telling you to get cautious. Every time over the past 8 years has been wrong. So why is it different this time? Well, it might not be. There may a bounce Friday. But then again there may not be. All we have to rely on is the actual price action. Thursday was a warning shot. A Bearish engulfing candle at the all-time high. Technicians will tell you that if confirmed lower Friday it is time to look for the downside. So where might that downside end up? The chart gives some clues. The first major support zone sits at the bottom of the previous channel at 136. That would be a little over a 6% correction. Below that there is support at 132.50 and the bottom of the prior channel at 129.50. That would be the first 10% correction in forever. So why will that not happen? The Nasdaq 100 has been on a tear all year. A 10% pullback would be considered healthy by many. But lets go back to the price action. The last consolidation traced out a bearish Shark harmonic and then retraces 38.2% of the pattern Thursday. This reaches the target reversal. It remains above the 20 day SMA, at a 61.8% retracement. The momentum indicators are heading lower but have a long way to go before they turn bearish. This could turn into a bearish rout. But not yet. Look for a move under 136 before you start short selling. If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page. The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.